Marco Lentini
Economy and geography of timber logging in Brazil

This map represents the logging frontiers in the Brazilian Amazon (yellow areas are old frontiers, light green areas are intermediate frontiers and dark green areas are new frontiers) as well the logging centers in the region in 2004. In the last 6 years a research team of Imazon (www.imazon.org.br) has been working to identify these logging centers, characterize the logging industry (production, investment, markets, challenges, motivations) and understand the trends of the timber sector. My research interests comprise economic issues of timber logging, in particular modeling of the feasibility and profitability of timber logging as a tool to subsidize public policies, in special related to forest concessions.

Ane A. C. Alencar
Spatial Determinants of Understory Fires in the Brazilian Amazon

Dense tropical forests become susceptible to understory fires after being disturbed by logging, when fragmented, and if stressed by severe drought. Together with these pre-disposing factors, spatial characteristics of the landscape including biophysical aspect, history of human induced forest disturbances and exposure to sources of ignition can be determinant to large scale understory fire occurrence. To understand which variables are more important to predict these fire events in the Amazon and how these variables change in importance across the region, I propose to develop a predictive model for understory forest fires for the State of Pará, one of the most active logging frontier areas in the region. This model will be based on quantification of the interactions among the climatic, degradation and ignition type of variables with past forest fires. The forest fires will be mapped using Landsat MSS, TM, and ETM satellite images for areas that represent the diversity of regions in the Pará. The fire scars will be used to derive the set of conditions in which the fire occurred, generating a function for each of region stratified on the basis of biophysical characteristics such as climate (drought), vegetation, soil, and topography, and based on human-induced forest disturbances characteristics such as fragmentation and logging. In addition, another element used in the stratification will be related to the likelihood of ignition, as predicted from the concentration of certain human activities that use fire as a management tool. The result of this research can demonstrate to the government the areas under higher risk of fire in the Amazon and what are the elements that make a landscape more prone to this type of event. Finally, knowing the extent of understory fires in the region will help in increasing the accuracy of estimates of the region’s net carbon flux.

Christine Lucas
Forest Recovery on the Floodplain: The impacts of land-use history on secondary forest succession in the Várzea of the Eastern Amazon, Brazil

The processes of succession drive carbon fluxes, biodiversity, and resource value of forests. Frameworks for understanding the mechanisms of forest succession emphasize the need to investigate further the influence of land-use history on the proximate abiotic and biotic factors mediating regeneration and establishment (Chazdon 2003, Guariguata and Ostertag 2001). I propose to study the impacts of two major floodplain land-uses, deforestation for agriculture and livestock husbandry, on secondary succession of seasonal floodplain forests in the Eastern Amazon. I will investigate how these anthropogenic disturbances influence the regeneration potential of seedling communities and the successional trajectories of forests. Specific emphasis will be placed on the influence of disturbance on the regeneration of locally valued forest species (e.g. for forest-based fisheries and construction purposes). Due to the interconnectedness of forest ecology and human land-use practices in the study region, my research will integrate anthropological methods to understand how forests are managed by floodplain communities. A case study of local community-based reforestation projects will investigate in depth the practices and motivations underlying forest management. The research project will incorporate participatory methods, focusing on the integration of women into the research process and the collaboration with local institutions.

Claudia Stickler
Spatial dimensions of institutions and governance and their effect on how forest resources are perceived and used

The image on the right is from flying over the northern Mato Grosso. It’s incredibly good at showing what is happening in this landscape. Unlike many other areas of Central America, the Andes, or other parts of the Amazon, agriculture here is conducted on a huge scale. Small farms are 1000 ha, not 60 to 100 ha. This makes all the difference when we’re trying to think about what kind of policy solutions might be appropriate here, that have a chance at slowing deforestation and the many other socioeconomic and environmental impacts associated with it. On the left is a graph that shows the amazingly tight relationship between deforestation (top graph), soy exports to the EU and China and the foreign exchange rate (both in bottom graph). Now look again at the photo on the right. In this landscape, everything is tied to how we understand the effects of the global market. Mere protesting will not do it, and neither will old-fashioned campaigns targeted towards consumers. The consumer still is important, but the approach needs to be much more nuanced. We need to get into the psychology of these large-scale producers and the banks that invest in them to identify the pressure points. And it’s really critical to identify the conditions under which different approaches (especially market-oriented ones) can work. What kind of institutional climate do you have? How about social capital? What is the future of agriculture in this region or the south and southeast of Brazil? What’s happening in Argentina? China? India?

Carolina

My project is related to the good farming practices that are being applied by small farmers of soybean in north central and north western Mato Grosso, Brasil. This project will investigate what the practices the farmers are using to protect their natural environmental are and why they decided to adopted these practices; the farmers? perception of the environmental changes after adopting these practices; the economic effects of adopting these agricultural practices; the market reaction against the farmer?s decision of implementing good farming practices; and finally, the effects on their yield.

Lucas Fortini
Viability of small-holder timber management in the Amazon Estuary: assessment from a watershed model.

I plan to evaluate the viability of timber use of a typical small-holder in the Amazon floodplain based on modeling projections of watershed-level timber extraction. I will incorporate in to the model ecological and economic yield of species utilized, current extent of compatible forest cover types and their current trajectories to project future resource availability. Model results will be compared to the current watershed extraction rates of timber to determine if the current rate of extraction is greater than the modeled sustained yield in the Mazagão watershed. I will also explore with the model how the price of timber and palm fruit harvest, milling efficiency and law compliance may impact the projections of future availability of timber resources and forest cover in the watershed.

Alex Macpherson

My research in forest economics will use concepts and models from principal-agent theory and the theory of public law enforcement to evaluate the design of alternative logging concession contracts in Brazilian public forests.  Specifically, I am embedding a matrix model of forest stand dynamics within a dynamic decisionmaking model where the concessionaire makes decisions as a function of forest state, prices, costs, royalty systems, and enforcement levels.  The objective of the modeling exercise is to identify, under a variety of circumstances, the combination of enforcement and incentives that maximizes government revenues while protecting multiple values of the forest.